This opinion piece by John Rapley discusses the 'Trump Always Chickens Out' (TACO) acronym, coined by Robert Armstrong, which suggests investors believe Donald Trump talks tough but doesn't follow through on threats. Rapley argues that if this belief becomes widespread, Trump will feel compelled to act more aggressively to counter the perception of weakness, as evidenced by his recent decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%. The article suggests that two upcoming deadlines – the end of the tariff suspension and the debt ceiling – will force Trump's hand, potentially leading to market volatility.
Opinion: The more you believe Trump Always Chickens Out, the less chicken Trump becomes
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TL;DR: Key points with love ❤️This opinion piece by John Rapley discusses the 'Trump Always Chickens Out' (TACO) acronym, coined by Robert Armstrong, which suggests investors believe Donald Trump talks tough but doesn't follow through on threats. Rapley argues that if this belief becomes widespread, Trump will feel compelled to act more aggressively to counter the perception of weakness, as evidenced by his recent decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%. The article suggests that two upcoming deadlines – the end of the tariff suspension and the debt ceiling – will force Trump's hand, potentially leading to market volatility.
Trending- 1 A few weeks ago: Robert Armstrong coins 'TACO' acronym.
- 2 This week: Donald Trump raises steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%.
- 3 Ongoing: Trump's second term in office.
- 4 In five weeks: Self-imposed suspension of 'Liberation Day' tariffs ends (July 9).
- 5 Before end of July: U.S. hits next debt ceiling.
- Trump's actions influenced by public perception
- Potential market volatility
- Risk of alienating core supporters
- Challenges to Trump's authority
What: An analysis of the 'Trump Always Chickens Out' (TACO) theory and how it might influence Donald Trump's actions, particularly regarding trade tariffs and the U.S. economy.
When: This week (Trump raised tariffs), A few weeks ago (TACO coined), Barely four months into his second term, less than a year before Congress elections, Five weeks (until end of tariff suspension), Before the end of July (next debt ceiling).
Where: United States, Wall Street.
Why: Donald Trump's recent tariff hike is seen as a reaction to the 'TACO' perception, aiming to prove he is not a 'chicken' and to restore his authority.
How: Trump's actions are influenced by the public and market perception of his willingness to follow through on threats. The article predicts upcoming deadlines will force him to either extend suspensions (weakening authority) or reimpose tariffs (risking market revolt).