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What are the chances of Earth being hit by a big asteroid?

(5 months ago)
Nicole Mortillaro
AsteroidsEarthSpaceNASAJim FreemantlePaul WeigertAstronomyThe Moon

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The article discusses the low probability of Earth being hit by a large asteroid in the near future, despite daily meteoric debris. It highlights the advancements in asteroid detection, particularly with the new Vera C. Rubin Observatory, which has already discovered over 2,000 previously undetected asteroids. Scientists are also exploring deflection methods like NASA's DART mission, and a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has a small chance of hitting the Moon in 2032.

Trending
  1. 1 2013 (Chelyabinsk meteorite)
  2. 2 a week ago (Vera C. Rubin Observatory images)
  3. 3 2032 (potential Moon impact)
  4. 4 2028 (earliest orbit refinement)
  • Enhanced planetary defence capabilities
  • Improved understanding of solar system formation
  • Potential for new scientific discoveries from asteroid samples
  • Public reassurance regarding asteroid threats
What: The chances of Earth being hit by a large asteroid are very small, but new observatories like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory are revolutionizing asteroid detection, finding thousands of previously unknown objects. Scientists are also developing methods to deflect potentially hazardous asteroids.
When: A week ago (Vera C. Rubin Observatory released first images), 2013 (Chelyabinsk meteorite), next 100 years (low risk of known asteroid impact), 2032 (potential Moon impact for 2024 YR4), 2028 (earliest for orbit refinement of 2024 YR4). The article is published June 30, 2025.
Where: Earth, Moon, Chelyabinsk (Russia), Mars, Jupiter, Neptune (asteroid belt, Kuiper Belt), Bennu (asteroid).
Why: To inform the public about the risks and realities of asteroid impacts, to showcase the importance of ongoing asteroid detection efforts, and to highlight advancements in planetary defence technologies.
How: Scientists use powerful telescopes like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory to scan the sky and identify asteroids. NASA's DART mission demonstrated the feasibility of kinetic impact to change an asteroid's orbit. Researchers like Paul Weigert and Jim Freemantle analyze asteroid paths and compositions.

The article discusses the low probability of Earth being hit by a large asteroid in the near future, despite daily meteoric debris. It highlights the advancements in asteroid detection, particularly with the new Vera C. Rubin Observatory, which has already discovered over 2,000 previously undetected asteroids. Scientists are also exploring deflection methods like NASA's DART mission, and a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has a small chance of hitting the Moon in 2032.