A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report predicts an 80% chance of breaking at least one annual heat record in the next five years, and a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will exceed 1.5C above preindustrial levels. For the first time, there's also a small (1%) but 'shocking' likelihood of a year reaching 2C warming before 2030, highlighting the urgent need to cut fossil fuel emissions.
Global temperatures could break heat record in next five years
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TL;DR: Key points with love ❤️A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report predicts an 80% chance of breaking at least one annual heat record in the next five years, and a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will exceed 1.5C above preindustrial levels. For the first time, there's also a small (1%) but 'shocking' likelihood of a year reaching 2C warming before 2030, highlighting the urgent need to cut fossil fuel emissions.
Trending- 1 Before 2014: 1.5C threshold considered implausible in five-year predictions.
- 2 2020: Previous WMO report.
- 3 2024: Hottest year on record, 1.5C threshold breached annually for the first time.
- 4 Current: WMO report released.
- 5 2025-2029: Forecasted period for breaking annual heat records and exceeding 1.5C average warming.
- 6 Before 2030: Small likelihood of a year reaching 2C warming.
- Increased risk of extreme droughts, floods, and forest fires
- Threat to human health, national economies, and natural landscapes
- Arctic winters warming 3.5 times faster than global average
- More rain in South Asia, Sahel, and Northern Europe
- Urgent need to cut fossil fuel emissions to limit warming
What: A World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report forecasts an 80% chance of breaking an annual heat record in the next five years and a 70% chance of exceeding 1.5C warming on average for 2025-2029, with a small chance of a 2C year before 2030.
When: Next five years (2025-2029); before 2030; 2024 (hottest year on record, 1.5C threshold breached); 2020 (previous WMO report); before 2014 (1.5C considered implausible); 175-year observational record.
Where: Global; Arctic; Amazon rainforest; South Asia; Sahel; Northern Europe; UK.
Why: Continued burning of oil, gas, coal, and trees (fossil fuel emissions) is driving global warming, leading to increased temperatures and extreme weather events.
How: The WMO report synthesizes short-term weather observations and long-term climate projections from 220 ensemble members across 15 institutes. It uses statistical probabilities to forecast future temperature increases based on current warming trends.