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Opinion: A shrinking population is hardly what this country needs right now

(4 months ago)
Andrew Coyne
Opinion

AI Summary

TL;DR: Key points with love ❤️

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is advocating for absolute population decline in Canada, calling for 'very hard caps' on immigration to ensure more people leave than arrive for the next couple of years. This stance aligns with recent policy shifts by the Trudeau government, which has already implemented drastic reductions in student permits and temporary foreign worker programs, aiming for a net out-migration of non-permanent residents. The article argues against depopulation, highlighting Canada's aging population and the need for labour supply, while critiquing the common arguments linking immigration to housing, healthcare, and wage issues.

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  1. 1 1916: Slowest population growth in Canada's history.
  2. 2 1946: Second-slowest quarterly rate of growth since this year (Q1 2025).
  3. 3 1950s-1960s: High immigration and population growth, no housing/healthcare shortages.
  4. 4 1993: Median total wait time for healthcare was 10 weeks.
  5. 5 2004: Median hourly wages up 20% in real terms since this year.
  6. 6 2012: Idle no More Movement protests against federal bill.
  7. 7 2016: Median total wait time for healthcare grew to 20 weeks.
  8. 8 2020: Indigenous protesters shut down railways and roads.
  9. 9 2021-2022: Housing price increases hit a new gear.
  10. 10 2021: Median total wait time for healthcare grew to 26 weeks.
  11. 11 Last fall (2024): Trudeau government announced drastic policy shifts on immigration.
  12. 12 Last quarter of 2024: Canada added 63,000 people.
  13. 13 This week (July 2025): Pierre Poilievre calls for absolute population decline.
  14. 14 First quarter 2025: Canada added just 20,000 people.
  15. 15 Next month (August 2025): Trump said US would impose 35% tariff on Canadian imports.
  16. 16 2027: Target to reduce share of non-permanent residents to 5%.
  • Potential for absolute population decline in Canada.
  • Reduced labour supply in Canada.
  • Increased pressure on an aging population to support social services.
  • Continued debate and political polarization over immigration policy.
  • Possible legal challenges to Bill C-2.
  • Slower population growth (already observed in Q1 2025).
What: Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called for absolute population decline in Canada through 'very hard caps' on immigration, aligning with the Trudeau government's recent policy shifts to reduce non-permanent residents.
When: This week (Poilievre's press conference); recent policy shifts last fall; first quarter (2025) for population growth data; 2027 for non-permanent resident reduction target.
Where: Canada.
Why: Poilievre believes immigration policy can revive his political fortunes. Conservative media sphere expresses concerns about 'overpopulation' and 'crowding' impacting labour, housing, and healthcare. The Trudeau government's reversal is attributed to immigration becoming a 'partisan liability'. The article's opinion piece argues against depopulation due to Canada's aging population, meagre productivity gains, and flat investment.
How: Poilievre made his call at a press conference. The Trudeau government implemented policy shifts by capping student permits and tightening the temporary foreign worker program, aiming for a net out-migration of non-permanent residents. Indigenous groups are challenging new laws to fast-track projects, which are linked to economic development and U.S. tariffs.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is advocating for absolute population decline in Canada, calling for 'very hard caps' on immigration to ensure more people leave than arrive for the next couple of years. This stance aligns with recent policy shifts by the Trudeau government, which has already implemented drastic reductions in student permits and temporary foreign worker programs, aiming for a net out-migration of non-permanent residents. The article argues against depopulation, highlighting Canada's aging population and the need for labour supply, while critiquing the common arguments linking immigration to housing, healthcare, and wage issues.