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Energy markets on edge as Iran considers retaliation for U.S. strikes. Here’s what you need to know

(5 months ago)
Emma Graney, Jeffrey Jones
Business

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Energy markets are on edge due to escalating conflict involving Israel, the U.S., and Iran. U.S. oil prices initially jumped after Israeli strikes on June 12, then sank on Monday as Iran's retaliation (a missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar) did not target energy exports or the critical Strait of Hormuz. Analysts assess the potential for muted long-term effects but warn of severe consequences if the strait is blocked.

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  1. 1 June 12, 2025: Israel launched its first strikes in Iran; U.S. oil prices jumped.
  2. 2 Late Saturday (June 21, 2025): U.S. military bombed three sites in Iran.
  3. 3 Monday (June 23, 2025): Oil prices sank; Iran launched a missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar.
  • Volatility in energy markets
  • Initial jump then subsequent drop in oil prices
  • Increased risk premium on oil prices
  • Potential for severe disruption to global oil supply if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked
  • Potential shift in destination for Canadian crude exports
  • Fall in shares of Canadian oil companies
What: Energy markets are experiencing volatility and uncertainty due to Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iranian cities and nuclear facilities, and Iran's subsequent retaliation.
When: U.S. oil prices jumped since June 12, 2025. U.S. entered the war late Saturday (June 21, 2025). Oil prices sank on Monday (June 23, 2025) after Iran launched a missile attack.
Where: Iran, Israel, United States, Qatar (Al Udeid Air Base), Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea. Global energy markets, particularly impacting China, India, South Korea, Japan, and Canada.
Why: Traders are assessing the risk that oil exports from the Middle East could be disrupted due to the escalating conflict, especially concerning the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global oil supply.
How: Israel launched strikes in Iran. The U.S. bombed three sites to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment. Iran retaliated with a missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar, but did not target oil facilities or the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy markets are on edge due to escalating conflict involving Israel, the U.S., and Iran. U.S. oil prices initially jumped after Israeli strikes on June 12, then sank on Monday as Iran's retaliation (a missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar) did not target energy exports or the critical Strait of Hormuz. Analysts assess the potential for muted long-term effects but warn of severe consequences if the strait is blocked.