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Opinion: Why is Alberta so grumpy? The truth is the West has been struggling badly

(1 week ago)
Charles St-Arnaud
BusinessCommentary

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TL;DR: Key points with love ❤️

Alberta is experiencing a significant surge of discontent and rising separatist sentiment, largely driven by a decade of economic struggles following the 2014 oil bust. Despite being Canada's wealthiest province by GDP per capita, its standard of living and household purchasing power have declined significantly, leading to a widespread feeling among Albertans that they are falling behind. This situation is exacerbated by federal regulations perceived as disproportionately affecting the province.

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  1. 1 1930s: Lack of bank lending to Alberta.
  2. 2 1980: National Energy Program.
  3. 3 1992: James Carville described the central issue of the US presidential campaign.
  4. 4 2004: Alberta's GDP per capita was at a level only marginally above its 2024 level.
  5. 5 2014: Oil bust, leading to a 7% economic decline.
  6. 6 2016: Hillary Clinton's comments regarding the 'deplorables' during the US elections.
  7. 7 Past decade (since 2014): Alberta's living standards have not improved, real disposable income declined.
  8. 8 Current: Fourth consecutive Liberal government, surge of discontent, referendum on separatism becoming highly likely.
  • Increased Western alienation
  • Rising separatist sentiment in Alberta
  • Potential referendum on separatism
  • Reduced purchasing power and employment potential for Albertans
  • Calls for greater understanding and empathy from the rest of Canada
What: Alberta is experiencing significant economic struggles, including a decline in standard of living and purchasing power since the 2014 oil bust, leading to widespread discontent and a rise in separatist sentiment. Federal regulations are also seen as contributing to the problem.
When: Past decade (since 2014 oil bust), 1930s (lack of bank lending), 1980 (National Energy Program), 1992 (US presidential campaign), 2004 (GDP per capita comparison), 2014 (oil bust), 2016 (US elections).
Where: Alberta, Western Canada, Quebec, British Columbia, Ontario, Spain, Portugal, Italy, United States.
Why: The main reason is economic struggle: a significant decline in standard of living and household purchasing power since the 2014 oil bust. This is compounded by federal regulations (e.g., 'emission cap,' 'clean electricity grid') perceived as harming Alberta disproportionately.
How: The 2014 oil bust led to a 7% economic decline and an eight-year recovery. Real disposable income per person has fallen by about 13% since 2014. Employment rates for younger and older male workers have dropped by about 10 percentage points.

Alberta is experiencing a significant surge of discontent and rising separatist sentiment, largely driven by a decade of economic struggles following the 2014 oil bust. Despite being Canada's wealthiest province by GDP per capita, its standard of living and household purchasing power have declined significantly, leading to a widespread feeling among Albertans that they are falling behind. This situation is exacerbated by federal regulations perceived as disproportionately affecting the province.