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Trump's tariff strategy could pay for his tax bill, but only if they stick, experts warn

(2 weeks ago)
Alex Miller
Donald TrumpGrowingdebtUnited StatesSenate

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Experts warn that President Donald Trump's proposed sweeping tariffs, intended to offset his $4 trillion tax bill and reduce the $2.4 trillion deficit, are unlikely to be a reliable funding source. This is due to their potential impermanence, shifting application, constitutional challenges, and negative economic impacts like reduced household wealth and economic shrinkage.

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  1. 1 2017: Trump's original tax package created; national debt roughly $20 trillion.
  2. 2 Eight years later (relative to 2017): National debt over $36 trillion.
  3. 3 Earlier this week (relative to article): CBO report released on Trump's legislative package.
  • Uncertainty over funding for Trump's tax bill
  • Potential for increased national debt
  • Projected drop in household wealth and economic shrinkage if tariffs are permanent
  • Ongoing debate over economic policy and deficit reduction
What: Experts are warning that President Donald Trump's strategy of using sweeping tariffs to pay for his proposed $4 trillion tax bill and reduce the $2.4 trillion deficit is unreliable, primarily because the tariffs' permanence and economic impact are uncertain.
When: 'Over the next decade' for deficit projections; 'eight years later' for national debt increase (from $20 trillion to $36 trillion); 'earlier this week' for CBO report.
Where: United States.
Why: Trump's administration and Republicans aim to fund a large tax bill and reduce the national deficit; experts are skeptical due to the inconsistent nature of tariff policy, constitutional challenges, and projected negative economic consequences.
How: Trump proposes extending and making permanent his first-term tax policies; the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that tariffs could reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion over a decade, but this assumes permanence; experts like Joe Rosenberg and Tad Dehaven highlight the inconsistency and economic inefficiency of tariffs; Mike Palicz criticizes CBO scoring.

Experts warn that President Donald Trump's proposed sweeping tariffs, intended to offset his $4 trillion tax bill and reduce the $2.4 trillion deficit, are unlikely to be a reliable funding source. This is due to their potential impermanence, shifting application, constitutional challenges, and negative economic impacts like reduced household wealth and economic shrinkage.