An independent adviser to the UK government, Prof Brian Bell, chair of the migration advisory committee, predicts UK net migration will fall to 200,000 in 2026, potentially causing labour shortages in hospitality, retail, and social care sectors. He also discussed the committee's report suggesting changes to family visa income thresholds.
Another drop in UK net migration in 2026 may cause labour shortages, says No 10 adviser
MigrationImmigration and asylumUKBusinessRetail industryHospitality industry
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An independent adviser to the UK government, Prof Brian Bell, chair of the migration advisory committee, predicts UK net migration will fall to 200,000 in 2026, potentially causing labour shortages in hospitality, retail, and social care sectors. He also discussed the committee's report suggesting changes to family visa income thresholds.
Trending- 1 Year to June 2023: Net migration climbed to a record 906,000.
- 2 Last year (2024): Net migration was 728,000.
- 3 Year to December 2024: Current provisional estimate is 431,000.
- 4 May (unspecified year, likely 2025): Keir Starmer unveiled plans to curb net migration.
- 5 Recently: Migration Advisory Committee launched its latest report on family visas.
- 6 Next year or so (2026): Expectation of net migration figures at 200,000.
- 7 Medium term: Net migration predicted to revert towards 300,000.
- Potential labour shortages in hospitality, retail, and social care sectors
- Conflict with human rights laws if family visa threshold is raised too high
- Potential increase in net migration if family visa threshold is lowered
What: Predicted drop in UK net migration to 200,000 in 2026, potentially leading to labour shortages in hospitality, retail, and social care sectors. Discussion of family visa income threshold changes and their potential impact on human rights and future migration figures.
When: Expected in 2026 (net migration drop), medium term (rise to 300,000), 'next year or so' (Bell's prediction), 'next few years' (recruitment struggles). The committee's latest report was launched recently.
Where: United Kingdom (UK), specifically referencing No 10 (Downing Street) and various UK sectors.
Why: Government efforts to reduce net migration, political pledges (Keir Starmer's aim to cut migration), and recent changes to visa issuance numbers. The committee's report aims to balance economic wellbeing with family life considerations.
How: Through a predicted fall in net migration numbers, influenced by visa issuance changes and government policies. The Migration Advisory Committee's report suggests alternative family visa income thresholds and outlines different options for policy makers.