The World Bank has significantly cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3% (down 0.4 percentage points), citing higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty, particularly due to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies. Forecasts were lowered for nearly 70% of economies, including the U.S., China, and Europe, with global trade growth also expected to slow considerably.
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TL;DR: Key points with love ❤️The World Bank has significantly cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3% (down 0.4 percentage points), citing higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty, particularly due to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies. Forecasts were lowered for nearly 70% of economies, including the U.S., China, and Europe, with global trade growth also expected to slow considerably.
Trending- 1 2008: Weakest global economic growth outside of a recession since this year
- 2 2000s: Global trade growth averaged 5.9%
- 3 January (unspecified year, likely 2025): Previous World Bank forecast
- 4 April (unspecified year, likely 2025): Trump announced tariff increases
- 5 Late May (unspecified year, likely 2025): Tariffs in effect for current forecast
- 6 Tuesday (2025-06-10): World Bank released its Global Economic Prospects report
- 7 This week: U.S.-China trade talks resume in London
- 8 July 9: Postponed tariff increases
- 9 2025: Global growth forecast cut to 2.3%; global trade growth forecast 1.8%; global inflation expected to reach 2.9%
- 10 2026: Global trade growth could see a modest rebound to 2.4%
- 11 By 2027: Global GDP growth expected to average 2.5%; developing economies' per capita GDP 6% below pre-pandemic levels
- Global growth forecast cut
- Global trade growth slowdown
- Increased global inflation
- Risk of global recession (though less than 10%)
- Developing economies to suffer most, potentially taking two decades to recoup losses
- Supply chains adapting
What: The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3% (from 2.7%), affecting nearly 70% of economies. This is attributed to higher tariffs and increased uncertainty stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies, which have raised U.S. tariff rates and triggered retaliation. Global trade growth is also projected to slow significantly.
When: Tuesday (World Bank report release); 2025 (forecast year); six months ago (previous forecast); since 2008 (weakest growth outside recession); by 2027 (GDP growth forecast); 2024 (previous trade growth); 2000s (previous trade growth); late May (tariffs in effect); April (Trump announced increases); July 9 (postponed increases); 2026 (modest rebound forecast); January (previous forecast for advanced economies/EMDEs).
Where: Global (economic impact), London (U.S.-China trade talks).
Why: U.S. President Donald Trump's 'erratic trade policies' including tariff hikes and retaliatory measures by other countries, leading to 'significant headwind' and 'uncertainty.'
How: The World Bank released its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report. Trump implemented tariff hikes. U.S. and China officials are meeting for trade talks.